Rating: Positive
Stock Market Performance
Why we watch it:
The stock market tends to be forward looking and it is a leading indicator of economic growth.
Recent Highlights:
International equities outshined domestic equities during the month of February. The S&P 500 was down -1.3% in February. Domestic mid-cap equities decreased -2.8%, while domestic small-cap equities decreased -5.4%. The S&P 500 is down -1.0% over the last three months and up 18.4% over the last twelve months.
The international index (MSCI ACWI ex-US) was up 1.4% in February. The index is up 3.5% over the last three months and up 10.2% over the last twelve months.
U.S. markets experienced several headwinds in February including impending tariffs, geopolitical tensions, economic weakness, and a decline in consumer confidence.
Positive Since November 2023
Rating: Positive
Consumer Spending
Why we watch it:
Over 70% of the U.S. economy is based on personal consumption. A reduction in consumer spending will cause slower growth in the economy.
Recent Highlights:
Consumer spending decreased -0.2% in January, well below expectations. This is the first negative reading since January 2023. Consumer spending has been very strong over the last several months but can still be volatile from one month to the next.
The second estimate of Q4 2024 consumer spending recorded a 4.2% increase. This is in line with the first estimate.
Personal income increased 0.9% in January, well above expectations.
Positive Since June 2022
Rating: Neutral
Manufacturing Activity
Why we watch it:
The health of the economy is dependent on the health of the manufacturing sector. Historically, it has been the path to development and an important driver of economic growth. Domestic manufacturing activity is tracked by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), which releases a monthly index while global activity is tracked by J.P.Morgan and IHS Market in association with ISM and IFPSM. The index monitors data like employment, production inventories, new orders and supplier deliveries. It is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms, and it’s considered an important economic measure. The index value ranges between 0 and 100. A value below 50 may indicate a slowdown in the economy, especially if the trend persists over several months. A value above 50 likely indicates a time of economic growth. Similarly, Global Manufacturing PMI is produced by IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM. It is compiled by IHS Markit from responses to monthly questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in survey panels in over 40 countries, totaling around 13,500 companies. It has the same value ranges as the ISM manufacturing report.
Recent Highlights:
ISM manufacturing reported 50.3 in February, below expectations. This reading is above the 50.0 break-even point, signaling expansion. New orders reported 48.6.
Global PMI posted a reading of 50.6 in February. This is an eight-month high. India, Indonesia, Brazil and the U.S. registered the highest PMI readings in February. Business conditions in Asia have improved, while the eurozone contraction continued.
Neutral Since March 2025
Rating: Neutral
Consumer Price Stability
Why we watch it:
Mild inflation is good for the economy, because it promotes consumption without destroying the value of people's savings. If you know something will be going up slightly in price down the road, you'll be more likely to purchase it now. If this effect is mild, it doesn't hurt savings rates very much. Deflation, however, punishes an economy because it hurts consumption. If you know something will be cheaper tomorrow or next year, you're more likely to wait until tomorrow to buy it. The Fed’s inflation target is 2 %.
Recent Highlights:
Headline CPI increased 0.5% in January. Over the last 12 months, CPI rose 3.0%. Both are above expectations.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.4% in January. Over the last 12 months, core CPI rose 3.3%. Both are also above expectations.
Neutral Since: December 2023
Rating: Neutral
Housing Market
Why we watch it:
The economy typically benefits directly and indirectly from increased housing activity. It is estimated that for every $100 in value resulting from housing construction, an extra $40-$80 is added to the economy due to housing-related spending.
Recent Highlights:
Total existing home sales decreased -4.9% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million units. Sales overall increased 2.0% from one year ago. This is the fourth straight monthly year-over-year increase.
The median existing-home price in January was $396,900. This is the 19th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. Unsold inventory is at about a 3.5-month supply. A three to six-month supply is considered a healthy balance between supply and demand.
New home sales decreased -10.5% in January to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 657,000. The median sale price of new homes sold in January was $446,300. Unsold inventory is at about 9.0-month supply. Note that the new home sales report is typically very volatile and the data is frequently revised.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended February around 6.8%.
Neutral Since October 2022
Rating: Neutral
Volatility
Why we watch it:
VIX is the symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index. It’s a weighted mix of the prices for a blend of S&P 500 Index options, from which implied volatility is derived. In other words, it measures how much people are willing to pay to buy or sell the S&P 500. The VIX goes up when there’s turmoil in the market, and goes down when investors are content or at ease with the economic outlook.
We like to watch the VIX, because it measures the cost of buying insurance for stock protection (through options). When the cost of protection is high, volatility is usually high, and the potential for declining stock values is higher.
Recent Highlights:
The VIX started February around 20.4 and ended the month at 19.6. Volatility remained steading during the month. The historical average is 19.2.
Neutral Since March 2025
Rating: Positive
TED Spread
Why we watch it:
The TED Spread is the banks’ cost of borrowing short-term money minus the Treasury’s cost of borrowing short-term money. The difference between the three-month SOFR interest rate and the three-month Treasury Bill interest rate measures the degree of riskiness of the bank lending market. When the spread is significant, banks worry about being repaid when loaning money to other banks, thereby creating uncertainty. This can cause slower growth in the economy.
Recent Highlights:
The current spread at the end of February was 0.12% (3-Month SOFR 4.42% – 3-Month Treasury Bill 4.30%). The current TED spread of 0.12% is below the historical average spread of about 0.57%.
Positive Since June 2020
